According to a mathematical prediction published more than six decades ago, humanity was supposed to reach its end on Friday, November 13, 2026. But despite the alarming conclusion, the researchers behind the prediction were not claiming that the planet would suddenly disappear. Their real concern was the rapid growth of the world’s population.
The unusual forecast came from a 1960 scientific paper that attempted to calculate how long humanity could continue growing at the rate observed throughout history. Although its central prediction has since become outdated, the study remains one of the most widely remembered mathematical attempts to identify a potential end point for human civilization.
Titled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026” the paper was written by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research team and published in the prestigious scientific journal Science. The study attracted considerable attention because of its striking title and extraordinary conclusion.
How Scientists Calculated the Predicted End of Humanity
To develop their forecast, von Foerster and his colleagues examined historical records of the world’s population covering approximately 2,000 years. They used those figures to construct a mathematical curve representing the growth of humanity over time.
The researchers then explored what would happen if the rate of growth observed at the time continued without interruption. Under that assumption, their mathematical model predicted that the population curve would reach infinity in November 2026.
In other words, the model suggested that the number of people living on Earth would increase without limit by Friday, November 13, 2026. This was the mathematical basis for the paper’s dramatic conclusion. Humanity would effectively destroy itself through overpopulation, at least according to the model’s theoretical outcome.
The unusual date was also part of a deliberate effort to attract public attention. By connecting the prediction to Friday the 13th, von Foerster gave the paper a memorable headline that would make people take notice of the growing population problem.
Interestingly, their mathematical curve appeared remarkably consistent with actual population figures until the beginning of the 1990s. After that, however, the real-world trend began moving in a different direction.
Why the World Population Is No Longer Growing at the Same Rate
One important factor was the decline in mortality. As fewer people died, particularly as living conditions and healthcare improved, the global population increased rapidly. Over time, another major change began to influence the numbers: families started having fewer children.
The fastest annual population growth was recorded in 1963, when the global rate exceeded 2 percent. By 2020, that figure had dropped below 1 percent.
According to estimates from the United Nations (UN), the world’s population is expected to continue increasing for several more decades, but at a much slower pace than in the past.
The organization projects that humanity will reach a population peak of approximately 10.3 billion people in the middle of the 2080s. After that, the global population is expected to gradually decline.
Friday the 13th Is Far From the First Predicted End of the World
One particularly memorable example occurred in 1910, when Halley’s Comet passed relatively close to Earth.
At the time, reports in newspapers warned that poisonous gases in the comet’s tail could spread through the atmosphere and wipe out life on the planet. The warnings caused widespread concern, and some businesses took advantage of people’s fears.
Merchants began selling gas masks, protective pills and even products advertised as special umbrellas against the approaching comet.
Despite the alarming predictions, the comet passed without causing any catastrophe.
Similar claims resurfaced many years later. An American radio preacher predicted that Judgment Day would arrive on May 21, 2011, while December 21, 2012, became another widely discussed date for a supposed apocalypse.
The 2012 prediction was connected to the end of a cycle in the ancient Mayan calendar. Although the calendar event was interpreted by some as a sign that the world would end, the date passed without the predicted disaster.
Even scientific research has sometimes produced warnings that did not unfold as expected.
In 1972, the influential study Limits to Growth raised concerns that humanity could soon run out of several essential natural resources as consumption and industrial development continued.
However, technological progress, the discovery of additional sources and the development of alternative solutions changed the picture. Some raw materials even became cheaper rather than increasingly scarce.
